August 15, 2005: the day Gaza will once again be Judenrein. Benjamin Netanyahu, a man I admire on many levels, resigned from his Finance Minister position in Ariel Sharon's government today, saying "I can't stop it, but I can be at peace with myself" with regard to the Gaza pullout. While I generally agree with Netanyahu and I don't like the idea of Israel withdrawing from any land, in particular a land with such clear historical ties to Judaism and the history of the Jewish people, I don't agree with him on this one.
Gaza is an odd bit of land and the demographics tend to complicate even the most logical of arguments. The one reason that I think leaving Gaza is a good idea is the geography and demographics and what they mean for the inevitable war that will break out with the Palestinian Arabs who occupy Gaza. Once Israel leaves Gaza to the Palestinian Arabs, there is sure to be a massive mobilization of terrorist groups within Gaza, free to organize and train for attacks on Israel.
Currently, Israel does have bases within Gaza along with a number of Israeli citizens who live near those bases. The Israeli military presence in Gaza is a bit misleading, as they are, for a number of reasons, not able to strike offensively. They are more of a police force and an intelligence unit than an army. And, because the "settlements" are spread throughout Gaza, it complicates what I think is the only proper response to any terror attacks on Israel.
At present, because of the presence of the Israeli military and citizens in Gaza, any military operation has to be precise and limited in scope, else damage be inflicted on friendly forces. Once Israel is out of Gaza, that limitation ceases to exist.
Gaza has the ocean on one side, unpopulated areas of Israel on two other sides and the Sinai desert on the third side. There really isn't anywhere to run from Gaza and there's very little to harm if devastating military action is employed in an indiscriminate fashion.
In case it isn't clear by now, what I imagine Gaza becoming is a killing field. Once all Israeli interests are out of Gaza, Israel will be free (subject, of course, to diplomatic issues) to use the exact opposite of a surgical strike on Gaza. Rather than have to send in men, Israel will be able to employ artillery and air and sea based munitions. I don't think this is going to happen upon harassing action by Palestinian Arab terrorists (e.g., a few mortars lobbed over the border), but it will happen when the Palestinian Arabs mount a serious attack on Israel from Gaza.
While this is a simplistic version of what I expect, it will go something like this...Israeli tanks and artillery will be moved into position outside of the borders of Gaza, in the area west of Ofaqim and south of Ashkelon. Israeli naval forces will be positioned off the coast of Gaza. Fixed and rotary wing aircraft will be sent to cover Gaza's airspace. And at that right time, the entirety of Gaza will be the focus of an awe inspiring bombardment. It will be similar in effect to the bombing of Dresden.
The world will howl, the Arab states will threaten retaliation, the UN will go into overdrive with condemnations. If Israel has the right leader at the time, it will all fall upon deaf ears.
I hate to quote pop music in such grave matters, but there's a line from Sheryl Crow's song "Leaving Las Vegas" that really applies to Gaza:
I'm standing in the middle of the desert
Waiting for my ship to come in
But now no joker, no jack, no king
Can take this loser hand
And make it win